What Happens After You Turn Paid Search Off?

I paused the non-brand paid search campaigns for one client this year over the course of February and March. This was done because this business is seasonally dependent, and it didn’t make sense to spend during this time based on historical data.

However, as we got closer to April (when we planned to reactivate these campaigns) someone from their team asked, “Pipeline has been good in Q1, why should we turn paid search back on?”

This was a great question, and I’m glad they asked!

After all, if you don’t have to spend extra money to grow and be profitable, why take the risk?

There were two main reasons why I recommended turning paid search back on.

1 - Seasonal Performance

When looking at Q2 and Q3 from last year, paid search campaigns for this client ended up being profitable, even when only looking at last-touch attribution. This means we could expect somewhat similar performance this year, if not better given all of the insights we’ve captured since then.

Historical data indicated that paid search was much less risky during this time of year, and actually presented a great opportunity for growth instead.

At the same time, there’s an “invisible” impact that paid search has had for this client which isn't readily apparent based on the long-term data we have available to us. 

Enter:

2 - The “Demand Gen” Impact of Paid Search

Fortunately I had just finished some analyses around deal win rates and pipeline sources across Q4 and Q1, so I had some data here. 

One data point that stuck out to me was that pipeline attributed to direct traffic in this client’s CRM saw a dramatic dip from Q4 to Q1. This is right in line with when we paused paid search.

We had some sparing data from 2024 which showed that a good number of deals which came from “direct” actually started with a site visit from non-brand search. This led me to hypothesize that even when paid search didn’t generate a direct response lead, it was driving more downstream action.

The big drop in pipeline from direct traffic was another supporting data point to validate this hypothesis given that paid search has been one of the largest marketing channesl for this business. I explained that if we didn’t reactivate paid search, we were actually risking future pipeline in H2 of this year.

As I explained the above, we agreed as a team to turn paid search back on. We’re only a few weeks into April, but we’re already seeing:

• An increase in overall pipeline

• Increases in leading indicator metrics like direct traffic and branded search

The risks of turning paid media on and off aren’t always specific to what happens this month, but instead what happens next quarter or next half.

Have questions, considerations, or critiques? I’d love to hear them! If you’re reading this via email, just hit respond. Otherwise, you can find me on LinkedIn.